Research work · 2025
EFFICIENCY OF SOFTWARE FOR NATIONAL CYBERSECURITY
Cybersecurity: Education, Science, Technique
Abstract
The article presents a method for assessing the effectiveness of cybersecurity programs (CSP) considering cyberattacks and associated risks, which is a continuation of the authors' previous research. The proposed approach is based on a modification of the target dynamic evaluation method for programs over a specified time interval, enabling the consideration of a complex structure of interrelations between objectives, the impact of cyberattacks, risks, and delays in achieving results. The method involves constructing a network hierarchy of objectives in three stages: first, the main objective is decomposed from top to bottom by identifying sub-objectives that directly influence its achievement, with their types defined (quantitative, qualitative, deterministic, stochastic, qualifying, or threshold); second, a bottom-up analysis is performed to establish feedback loops; third, models of cyberattacks and risks are integrated into the hierarchy. Cyberattacks are modeled as special programs that negatively affect objectives, while risks are accounted for by introducing indicators in the form of additional objectives. The evaluation of CSP effectiveness is based on determining the degree of impact of program implementation (both simple and complex) on the achievement of the main objective. The paper introduces the concept of an instantaneous relative efficiency indicator, which allows analyzing the dynamics of efficiency at different implementation stages. An iterative algorithm for simulating the hierarchy is used to calculate the degree of objective achievement, taking into account nonlinearity, feedback, and time-dependent parameters. A key feature of the method is the ability to promptly recalculate efficiency when program structures change. The method is applied to assess the effectiveness of CSP implementation directions, sets of cyberattacks and risks, as well as countermeasures against them. The developed approach can be used not only in the field of cybersecurity but also for analyzing complex target programs in technical, economic, and other domains.