Research work · 2025
METHOD OF STRATEGIC PLANNING OF CYBERSECURITY MEASURES BASED ON THE SWOT CONCEPT
Cybersecurity: Education, Science, Technique
Abstract
The paper proposes a method for strategic planning of cybersecurity measures for critical infrastructure objects, developed on the basis of a formalized SWOT model that integrates qualitative analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats with quantitative assessment of risks, costs, and the effectiveness of protective actions. Unlike the classical descriptive SWOT analysis, which lacks analytical consistency, the proposed approach involves constructing a mathematical model of strategic planning in which each factor is represented by a weighted set, and the relationships between internal and external factors are defined through a strategic influence matrix. An integrated risk coefficient is introduced, taking into account the probability of threat realization, the level of its impact on critical functions, and the residual vulnerability of the system. This enables a transition from qualitative expert assessment to an optimization problem of maximizing cybersecurity effectiveness under resource constraints. The mathematical model implements multicriteria optimization, where the objective function describes the difference between the expected efficiency of measures and the weighted cost of their implementation while maintaining the permissible level of residual risk. To select a rational set of actions, methods of fuzzy normalization of evaluations and Pareto optimization are applied, ensuring adaptive planning in a dynamic threat environment. Based on the model, an architecture of a cybersecurity situational center is developed, implementing functions of monitoring, protection level assessment, risk forecasting, and decision support at the strategic level. Modeling results demonstrated that the use of the formalized SWOT approach increases coherence between tactical and strategic decisions, reduces residual risk by 25–30%, and enhances the resilience of critical infrastructure operations. The proposed method can be integrated into decision-support systems of cybersecurity situational centers and serve as an analytical core of national cybersecurity platforms to strengthen the resilience and continuity of critical infrastructure.