Research work · 2022
Climate Policy and Climate Change: What Can We Expect?
Climate Future
Abstract
AbstractChapter 2 used some very simple models to examine the likelihood of preventing the increase in the global mean temperature from exceeding 2°C by the end of the century. That chapter showed that even with a very optimistic scenario for emission reductions, it is unlikely that we will prevent a temperature increase of that magnitude. This chapter explores what might or might not happen in more detail. The chapter starts with CO2 emissions and asks what kinds of scenarios might we view as realistic, whether or not they are optimistic. The chapter includes the impact of methane emissions, which have been growing. These calculations provide even stronger evidence that it is unlikely we can prevent a temperature increase greater than 2°C.